NAIC Generator of Economic Scenarios

As part of the 2026 Valuation Manual, the NAIC will switch the models it uses for reserve and capital calculations from the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG) to a custom calibration of Conning’s GEMS® Economic Scenario Generator software. These calibrations will be called Generator of Economic Scenarios, or GOES. Conning will be making these calibrations available to insurance companies who wish to calculate the reserves and capital for their economically sensitive products.

 

Everything GOES Podcast

Everything GOES is a new podcast for insurers who want to learn more about the transition from AIRG to GOES and what it will mean for them and their process. Topics will include timing, delivery options, key model changes and the model governance process.

 
 

Robust Data

Over the years, companies have expanded the complexity of their cash flow models. For example, many models can now utilize corporate spreads and transitions rather than just the total returns supplied by the AIRG. To help these companies, Conning will also be licensing a more extensive data file called “Robust Data.” In addition to offering detailed corporate data, this file will offer a wider range of investments, such as mortgage-backed securities, CLOs and hedge funds. These files can also be customized to align directly with your company’s cash flow modelling platform without having to install any software.

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Software Options

In addition to the scenario files, Conning will also be offering three different methods for companies to run their own simulations:

  1. A desktop version of GEMS® Economic Scenario Generator installed on your company’s machines
  2. A web-based version GEMS® Economic Scenario Generator accessed via browser
  3. An API version of GEMS® Economic Scenario Generator which allows you to directly simulate the scenarios within your cash flow modelling projection platform

With any of these options, companies will be able to generate all of the data in the Robust Data set themselves. They will also be able to create their own custom asset classes. Finally, all three platforms will let companies generate shock scenarios (e.g., increasing the treasury curve 100 bps) as well as scenarios based on future conditions.

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Viewpoint: The Asset Class Impact of GOES

In a new white paper series, Daniel Finn, ASA, discusses the impact of the transition from AIRG to GOES on the asset classes that are modeled. This first installment is AIRG vs. GOES: Comparing Bond Classes.


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