2023: 2022 Property‐Casualty Loss Reserves - Keeping Vigilant
Of all the challenges the insurance industry faced in 2022, reserve adequacy was not one of them. While the cushion has narrowed, the industry’s reserves remain redundant. Although inflation is and will be a challenge, it had little impact on 2022 reserve results. Our analysis of reserves in this study looks back at year-end 2022; we do not forecast changes in adequacy. Primary insurers are retaining more risk with a hardened reinsurance market of rate increases and tighter terms, so insurers should remain vigilant.
Our review of the property-casualty insurance industry’s loss reserve position suggests slight deterioration in 2022, when compared to our previous annual analysis. Overall, Conning believes the industry continues to carry sufficient reserves (gross of discount), with a modest degree of safety, under assumptions that claim settlement patterns will continue at their current pace. This is an important assumption that continues to be of concern in the period of low inflation and high volatility that apparently ended in 2021. With persistent inflation and/or more robust growth, these patterns are likely to change, thus adversely affecting loss reserve adequacy.
Table of Contents:
2. Executive Summary
3. Industry Overview—Common Themes
4. Private Passenger Auto Liability/Medical
6. Workers’ Compensation
7. Commercial Multiperil
8. Other Liability
9. Commercial Auto/Truck Liability/Medical
10. Medical Professional Liability
11. Miscellaneous Lines
12. Asbestos and Environmental
13. Industry Comparison with Small Insurers
14. Industry Comparison with Midsized Insurers
15. Industry Comparison with Large Insurers
- A. Methodology
- B. Glossary
- C. Additional Data
This is the fifth study in which we include estimates of the reserve adequacy levels by line of business for small and large companies. Consistent with last year’s study, we have defined large companies as those with $4 billion or more in annual premiums. In prior years, we defined large companies as those with $2 billion or more in annual premiums.
In this study, we again include a range of reserve adequacy for each core line of business and accident year. More information on these ranges is provided in subsequent sections in this study.