2013: Personal Lines State Environment Annual - 2013 Edition
Conning’s Personal Lines State Environment Annual provides a detailed look at the premium growth outlook in each of the states (and the District of Columbia). The review focuses on the unique characteristics of each state that cause its outlook to diverge from Conning’s national forecast. Historical performance, legislative and regulatory changes, as well as economic and demographic trends are viewed, with an eye on the key drivers of state premium growth and profitability environment.
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. National Line-of-Business Outlook
- Personal Automobile
- Homeowners
Introduction
Conning’s Personal Lines State Environment Annual provides a detailed look at the premium growth outlook in each of the states (and the District of Columbia). The review focuses on the unique characteristics of each state that cause its outlook to diverge from Conning’s national forecast. We review historical performance, legislative and regulatory changes, as well as economic and demographic trends, with an eye on the key drivers of state premium growth and profitability.It is critical to the planning function to understand how and why state insurance market performance varies. A company’s plan should include a sense of expectations for profitable growth in a given territory or for a given line of business. Developing informed assumptions for an assessment of growth expectations is a critical element of the plan. Monitoring performance involves not only recording performance via the bottom-line metric, but also monitoring performance of the underlying assumptions. Understanding variances in assumptions is critical to developing a more robust plan.
Not all states were affected in similar fashion by the recent recession, and not all states are emerging equally. The recession has made an understanding of the underlying differences among the state insurance environments a fundamental element of success. A detailed understanding of state differences should guide strategy as the economy recovers.
This annual review focuses on growth and profit drivers of the 51 personal lines insurance markets. Chapter 2 summarizes our methodology, which is linked to our national forecast product. Because of the importance of the national forecast to our state outlooks, Chapter 3 provides a summary of Conning’s national outlook for the personal auto and homeowners lines (as of the fourth quarter of 2013). Chapter 4 then provides the 51 insurance market environmental summaries, along with Conning’s line-of-business premium growth rank, as well as premium growth and profitability outlook scores.