2016 Property-Casualty Loss Reserves: Reserve Redundancies-What Goes Up Must Come Down


Michael Warner
Conning, Inc.

Conning—Property-Casualty Industry’s Loss Position Stable at Year End 2016

--While many lines continue redundant, auto lines deficient

(Hartford, CT) August 8, 2017—The property-casualty industry’s overall loss position as of year-end 2016 appears stable, with significant differences by line of business, according to a new study by Conning.

“Conning’s view is that the industry’s reserve adequacy remained relatively stable in 2016,” said Bill Burns, a Vice President, Insurance Research at Conning. “Our review of loss reserves for the property-casualty industry overall suggests that reserves remain modestly redundant. For the total industry, we estimate carried reserves at year-end 2016 to be redundant by 1.2 percent, which is slightly less than our estimated redundancy of 1.7 percent at year-end 2015.”

The Conning study, “2016 Property-Casualty Loss Reserves: Reserve Redundancies—What Goes Up Must Come Down” reviews the property-casualty industry’s loss reserve position at the end of 2016, by line of business and in total.

“The industry experienced favorable loss development of $4.7 billion in 2016,” said Steve Webersen, Head of Insurance Research at Conning. “This marks the eleventh consecutive year that the industry has had favorable development from prior accident years. However, both the amount of favorable development and our estimated redundancy has been steadily dwindling over the past few years.  There also is variability in the level of reserve adequacy among the lines of business.  In private passenger auto, for instance, our analysis suggests that the line is deficient for the first time since 2001, while the reserve deficiency for commercial automobile has worsened considerably since the prior year.”

“2016 Property-Casualty Loss Reserves: Reserve Redundancies—What Goes Up Must Come Down” is available for purchase from Conning by calling (888) 707-1177 or by visiting www.conningresearch.com.


Conning (www.conning.com) is a leading global investment management firm with more than $115 billion in global assets under management as of June 30, 2017.* With a long history of serving the insurance industry, Conning supports institutional investors, including pension plans, with investment solutions and asset management offerings, award-winning risk modeling software, and industry research. Founded in 1912, Conning has offices in Boston, Cologne, Hartford, Hong Kong, London, New York, and Tokyo.

*As of June 30, 2017, represents the combined global assets under management for the affiliated firms under Conning Holdings Limited, and Cathay Securities Investment Trust Co., Ltd. ("SITE"). SITE reports internally into Conning Asia Pacific Limited, but is a separate legal entity under Cathay Financial Holding Co., Ltd. which is the ultimate controlling parent of all Conning entities.